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預計2507不銹鋼板價格短期回落后將再次上行

發布日期:2019/6/5 10:46:17
作者:江蘇鑫銘捷金屬制品有限公司
來源:http://www.jsdrwhcm.com
      “環保因素成為影響焦炭走勢的關鍵?!鄙充撋藤Q總經理李向陽表示,焦炭現實和預期存在不一致的矛盾。新增產能投入,可落后產能遲遲未淘汰,導致焦炭的基本面較差,港口庫存壓力很大。焦炭盤面的波動,僅來自于對限產淘汰政策實行不確定。因此,焦炭今年階段性會經常出現近弱遠強現象,一旦近月發現限產不及預期,港口庫存不減,那么市場就寄希望于遠月環保淘汰實行,遠月轉強。鋼鐵行業一直供應偏緊,對應出口下降,未來從供應端來看,不會再面臨大面積縮減,左右價格的主要驅動力是需求方面。
在楊俊林看來,在環保限產趨于寬松、鋼廠利潤仍處于相對高位的背景下,鋼廠增產積極性依然較強,而且產能置換政策也使得部分閑置產能再次進入市場且得到更為充分的利用,2019年粗鋼產量將再創歷史新高。房地產韌性依然較強,而基建增速仍有回升空間,預計下半年高需求仍將延續。此外,今年國內宏觀經濟政策的逆周期調節以及中美貿易摩擦都將對市場運行節奏產生較大影響,操作上需要特別注意。對于未來螺紋鋼行情,楊俊林表示,4月份以來,2507不銹鋼板期貨價格持續高位振蕩。二季度末,市場邏輯將轉移至對下半年的預期上來,預計2507不銹鋼板價格短期回落后將再次上行,不過高供給也將抑制其上行幅度。預計RB1910合約高點在4200元/噸左右,RB2001合約運行區間為3300—3900元/噸。
對于下半年的鋼鐵市場,上海鋼聯研發總監魏迎松表示,在供給方面,雖有環保限產預期,但產量大幅減少的可能性小。需求方面,基建投資增速企穩回升,房地產建設旺盛,拉動整體鋼材需求,汽車是否出臺強刺激政策值得關注。其次,在原材料方面,鐵礦石受到巴西礦難事件的影響,未來價格還有支撐,焦價運行偏強,為鋼價帶來支撐。綜合來看,當前2507不銹鋼板庫存去化速度逐步放緩,梅雨、高溫天氣來臨,季節性消費淡季可能導致鋼價階段性回調,倘若跌幅較大,鋼廠主動減產,三季度鋼價或出現高點。若淡季不淡,產出壓力持續存在,下半年2507不銹鋼板價難比上半年。http://www.jsdrwhcm.com
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